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IS362 Spring 2007 :: Blog :: Chapter 11 – Neuman

April 03, 2007

This chapter got me thinking about the problem with governmentally collected statistics, specifically the “Official inflation rate” and how it is used for a wide variety of purposes.  We are told that in the past few years, the beast of inflation has been conquered by careful planning by our central bank, with inflation now around 3% a year.  CPI (Consumer Price Index) is used to determine pay raises, cost of living increases, etc., but I believe it is often a poor measure of the increases that consumers actually are feeling.  The cost of gasoline has increased more than 3% a year, and so has the cost of housing, but somehow during the years when these two key expenses were spiking up, the CPI seemed to keep falling.  This discrepancy between the experience of the population and the “official” rate are determined to suit the purposes of government.  The CPI is an abstraction of the true rate of inflation with some spin, but it seems that research with these politically tied numbers might suffer from problematic conclusions. 

Posted by IS362 Spring 2007 - Kevin Williams


Comments

  1. Yes, that is a good point. That is a good example of discrepancy between interests of government officials and normal customers. As a former economist of the bank of Korea, I heard that question whenever CPI was released. In brief, components that consists of CPI were decided based on through considerations. Once the components are fixed, the components are not easily changed because of reliability and validity.

    Myungjae KwakMyungjae Kwak on Monday, 02 April 2007, 18:20 Pacific Daylight Time # |

  2. I like the chapter discussion of similar points.  It shows that the same terms can mean a great deal of different things to different people.  What is population?  What is a person?  When is a person a person in terms of the diamond carpool lane?

    Mitch CochranMitch Cochran on Monday, 02 April 2007, 18:48 Pacific Daylight Time # |

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